Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine

Keywords: spring floods, stationarity, homogeneity, frequency analyses, cyclical fluctuations


The river floods are among the most dangerous natural disasters in the world. Each year, the spring floods cause the significant material damage in the different countries, including Ukraine. Knowledge of trends in such floods, as well as their probabilistic forecast, is of great scientific and practical importance. In last decades, the decreasing phase of cyclical fluctuations of the maximum runoff of spring floods has been observed on the plain rivers of Ukraine, including the Southern Bug River. In addition, there is an increase in air temperature. So, the actual task is the determine the modern probable maximum discharges estimates of spring floods in the Southern Buh River Basin as well as their comparison with the estimates that were computed earlier. It gives an opportunity to reveal possible changes of the statistical characteristics and values of the probable maximum discharges, to analyze and to discuss the reasons for these changes. For the investigation, we used the time series of the maximum discharges of spring floods for 21 gauging stations in the Southern Buh River Basin since the beginning of the observations and till 2015. The method of the regression on the variable that is based on the data of analogues rivers was used to bringing up the duration of the time series and restoration of the gaps. In the study, the hydro-genetic methods for estimation of the homogeneity and stationarity of hydrological series, namely the mass curve, the residual mass curve and the combined graphs. The distributions of Kritskyi & Menkel and Pearson type III for the frequency analysis were used. It has been shown in this study that the maximum discharges of spring floods of time series are quasi-homogeneous and quasi-stationary. It is explained the presence in the observation series of only increasing and decreasing phases of cyclical fluctuations, their considerable duration, as well as the significant variability of the maximal flow. The series of maximal runoff of spring floods are very asymmetric, which significantly complicates the selection of analytical distribution curves. The updated current parameters of the maximal spring flood runoff have not changed significantly. It can be assumed that such characteristics have already become stable over time, as the series of maximal runoff of spring floods already have phases of increasing and decreasing of long-term cyclic fluctuations.

Author Biographies

Liudmyla O. Gorbachova
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv
Viktoria S. Prykhodkina
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv
Borys F. Khrystiuk
Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute of the State Emergency Service of Ukraine and the National Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, Kyiv


1. Apel, H., Thieken, A.H., Merz, B. and Blöschl, G., 2004. Flood risk assessment and associated uncer- tainty. Natural Hazards and Earth System Science, 4(2), 295-308. https://SRef-ID: 1684-9981/ nhess/2004-4-295
2. Andreyanov, V.G., 1959. Ciklicheskie kolebanija godovogo stoka i ih uchet pri gidrologicheskih raschetah [Cyclical fluctuations of annual runoff and their account at hydrological calculations]. Proceed- ings of Russian State Hydrological Institute, 68, 3-49. (in Russian).
3. Bauzha, T. and Gorbachova, L., 2017. The features of the cyclical fluctuations, homogeneity, and stationar- ity of the average annual flow of the Southern Buh river basin. Annals of Valahia University of Targoviste. Geographical Series, 17(1), 5-17. https:// doi.org/10.1515/avutgs-2017-0001
4. Blöschl, G., Hall, J., Viglione, A., Perdigão, R.A.P, Para- jka, J., Merz, B., Lun, D., Arheimer, B., Aroni- ca, G.T., Bilibashi, A., Boháč, M., Bonacci, O., Borga, M., Čanjevac, I., Castellarin, A., Chirico, G.B., Claps, P., Frolova, N., Ganora, D., Gorbachova, L., Gül, A., Hannaford, J., Harrigan, Sh., Kireeva, M., Kiss, A., Kjeldsen, T.R., Kohnová, S., Koskela, J.J., Ledvinka, O., Macdonald, N., Mavrova-Guirguinova, M., Mediero, L., Merz, R., Molnar, P., Montanari, A., Murphy, C., Osuch, M., Ovcharuk, V., Radevski, I., Salinas, J.L., Sau- quet, E., Šraj, M., Szolgay, J., Volpi, E., Wilson, D., Zaimi, K. and Živković, N., 2019. Changing climate both increases and decreases European river floods. Nature, 573(7772), 1-4. https://doi. org/10.1038/s41586-019-1495-6
5. Blöschl, G., Sivapalan, M., Savenije, H., Wagener, T. and Viglione, A. (Eds.), 2013. Runoff Prediction in Ungauged Basins: Synthesis Across Processes, Places and Scales. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK.
6. BNR, 1985. Stroitel’nye normy i pravila. Opredelenie ra- schetnyh gidrologicheskih harakteristik SniP 2.01.14-83. [The building norm and rules. The de- termination of the calculation hydrologic characteristics 2.01.14-83]. State committee USSR on the construction. Moscow, Stroyizdat. (in Russian).
7. Chow, V.T., Maidment, D.R. and Mays, L.M., 1988. Ap- plied hydrology. McGraw-Hill International Editions.
8. Doe, R., 2006. Extreme Floods: A History in a Changing Climate. Sutton Publishing, Phoenix Mill, Thrupp, Stroud, Gloucestershire, UK.
9. Gorbachova, L., 2014. Metodychni pidhody ocinky odnoridnosti i stacionarnosti gidrologichnyh rjadiv cpocterezhen’. [Methodical approaches the assessment of the homogeneity and stationarity of hydrological observation series]. Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology, 5(32), 22-31. (In Ukrainian).
10. Gorbachova, L., 2015. The intra-annual streamflow distribution of Ukrainian rivers in different phases of long-term cyclical fluctuations. Energetika, 61(2), 71-80. https://doi.org/10.6001/energetika. v61i2.3134
11. Gorbachova, L., 2016. Misce ta rol’ gidrologo-genetichno- go analizu sered suchasnyh metodiv doslidzhenja vodnogo stoku richok [Place and role of hydrogenetic analysis among modern research methods runoff]. Proceedings of Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 268, 73-81. (In Ukrainian).
12. Gorbachova, L. and Bauzha, T., 2013. Complex analysis of stationarity and homogeneity of flash flood maximum discharges in the Rika River basin. En- ergetika, 59(3), 167-174. https://doi.org/10.6001/ energetika.v59i3.2708
13. Gorbachova, L.О. and Barandich, S.L., 2016. Prostorovochasova minlyvist’ maksymal’nogo stoku vody vesnjanogo vodopol’ja i pavodkiv zmishanogo prohodzhdennja richok Ukrainy. [Spatio-temporal fluctuations of maximum flow of spring floods and snow-rain floods of Ukrainian rivers]. Proceedings of Ukrainian Hydrometeorological Institute, 269, 107-114. (In Ukrainian).
14. Gorbachova, L. and Khrystyuk, B., 2018. Calculation ap- proaches of the probable maximum discharge of spring flood at ungauged sites in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine. Annals of Valahia Universi- ty of Targoviste. Geographical Series, 18(2), 107- 120. https://doi.org/10.2478/avutgs-2018-0012
15. Grebin, V.V., 2010. Suchasnyj vodnyj rezhym richok Ukrainy (landshaftno-gidrologichnyj analiz). [The Modern Water Regime of Rivers in Ukraine (Landscape-Hydrologic Analysis)]. Kyiv, Nika- Centr. (In Ukrainian).
16. Kaganer, M.S. (Eds.), 1969. Resursy poverhnostnyh vod SSSR. Ukraina i Moldavija. Srednee i nizhnee podneprov’e. [The surface water resources of USSR. Ukraine and Moldova. The Middle and Lower Dnieper]. Leningrad: Gidrometeoizdat, 6(1), 884. (in Russian).
17. Khrystyuk,B.F.,2013.Metodykaklassyfikaciigidrografiv richok za kriterijamy analogichnosti. [The technique of the classification of river hydrographs by criteria of analogy]. Hydrology, Hydrochemistry and Hydroecology, 3(30), 15-20. (In Ukrainian).
18. Khrystyuk, B., Gorbachova, L. and Koshkina, O., 2017. The impact of climatic conditions of the spring flood formation on hydrograph shape of the Desna River. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Applications, 5(1), 63-70. https://doi.org/10.26491/mhwm/67914
19. Khrystiuk, B., Gorbachova, L., Prykhodkina, V., 2020. Faceted classification of the hydrograph shapes of the spring floods of the Southern Buh river. Geografický Časopis, 72(1), 71-80. https://doi. org/10.31577/geogrcas.2020.72.1.04
20. Kritskiy, S.N. and Menkel, М.F., 1940. Obobshhennyj podhod k raschetam upravlenija stoka na osnove matematicheskoj statistikiю [A generalized ap- proach to streamflow control computations on the basis of mathematical statistics]. Gidrotekhn. Stroit., 2, 19-24. (In Russian).
21. Kjeldsen, T. R., 2015. How reliable are design flood estimates in the UK? Journal of Flood Risk Management, 8(3), 237-246. https://doi. org/10.1111/jfr3.12090
22. Kundzewicz, Z.W. and Robson, A.J., 2004. Change detection in hydrological records – a review of the methodology. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 49(1), 7-19. https://doi.org/10.1623/ hysj.
23. McKerchar, A.I. and Macky, G.H., 2001. Comparison of a regional method for estimating design floods with two rainfall-based methods. Journal of Hydrology (New Zealand), 40(2), 129-138. https://www.js- tor.org/stable/43922046
24. Odry, J. & Arnaud, P., 2017. Comparison of Flood Frequency Analysis Methods for Ungauged Catch- ments in France. Geosciences, 7(88). https://doi. org/10.3390/geosciences7030088
25. Okoli, K., Breinl, K., Mazzoleni, M. and Di Baldassarre G., 2019. Design Flood Estimation: Exploring the Potentials and Limitations of Two Alternative Approaches. Water, 11(4), 729. https://doi. org/10.3390/w11040729
26. Palamarchuk, M.M. & Zakorchevna, N.B. (Edit.), 2006. Vodnyj fond Ukrainy: dovidkovyj posibnyk. [Water Fund of Ukraine. Reference guide]. Kyiv, Nika-Center. (In Ukrainian).
27. Pekarova, P., Miklánek, P. and Pekár, J., 2003. Spatial and temporal runoff oscillation analysis of the main rivers of the world during the 19th-20th centuries. Journal of Hydrology, 274, 62-79. https://doi. org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00397-9
28. Razmi, A., Golian, S. and Zahmatkesh, Z., 2017. Non-Stationary Frequency Analysis of Extreme Water Level: Application of Annual Maximum Series and Peak-over Threshold Approaches. Water Resour. Manag, 31, 2065-2083. https://doi. org/10.1007/s11269-017-1619-4
29. Saghafian, B., Golian, S. and Ghasemi, A., 2014. Flood frequency analysis based on simulated peak dis- charges. Nature Hazards, 71, 403-417. https://doi. org/10.1007/s11069-013-0925-2
30. Shakirzanova, Zh. R., 2015. Dovgostrokove prognozuvan- nja harakteristik maksimal’nogo stoku vesnjanogo vodopіllja rіvninnih rіchok ta estuarіїv teritorії Ukraїny: monografіja. [Long-term forecasting of characteristics maximum runoff spring flood plain rivers and estuaries in Ukraine: monograph]. Odesa, FOP Bondarenko M.O. (In Ukrai- nian).
31. Vyshnevskyi,V.,2000.RichkyivodoimyUkrainy.Stan i vykorystannia: monografіja. [Rivers and reservoirs of Ukraine. Condition and use: monograph]. Kyiv, Vipol. (In Ukrainian).
32. WMO (World Meteorological Organization), 2009. Guide to Hydrological Practices, Vol. II, Management of Water Resources and Application of Hydrological Practices, sixth edition, WMO-No. 168, World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, Switzerland.
33. Zabolotnia, T., Gorbachova, L. and Khrystyuk, B., 2019. Estimation of the long-term cyclical fluctuations of snow-rain floods in the Danube basin within Ukraine. Meteorology Hydrology and Water Management. Research and Operational Ap- plications, 7(2), 3-11. https://doi.org/10.26491/ mhwm/99752
How to Cite
Gorbachova, L., Prykhodkina, V., & Khrystiuk, B. (2021). Spring flood frequency analysis in the Southern Buh River Basin, Ukraine. Journal of Geology, Geography and Geoecology, 30(2), 250-260. https://doi.org/https://doi.org/10.15421/112122