Attempt to Create a Cartographic Forecast Model of Subsidence Degradation for the Right Bank Area of the City Dnipro

  • T. P. Mokritskaya Oles Honchar Dnipro National University
  • K. O. Samoylych graduate student Oles Honchar Dnipro National University
Keywords: catastrophic model, degradation, risk.


Modeling of geodynamic risk is a highly relevant scientific issue; its solution requires solving particular problems in creating a model of the geological environment, selecting the risk factors, creating a model of process, acknowledging the scenarios and prognoses. Geodynamic risk in the areas of development of subsident soils can be defined as the possibility of massif deformations during changes in the soil condition (degradation). The limit state is the state of full water saturation, when the possibility of subsidence is low. Application of the three-term gradation to the scale of conditions sets the boundary values of soil moisture – the indicators of mild, average and critical changes. The predicted condition of the massif is set by a system of features – independent variables, input parameters correlated with values of moisture and values of degradation of subsidence properties. The predicted value of subsidence degradation under additional loading and in natural conditions is found using the group method of data handling. Widespread presence of subaerial loess-like formation in the composition of the geological environment in stratigraphic-genetic complexes of different composition and properties, and in water-bearing horizons, leads to intense development of exogenous geological processes and vulnerability of the environment.Typification of the geological structure of the massif was performed using the results of analysis of numerous engineering-geological studies (Dnipro, 1960-2007). The total number of wells is 785, the depth varies from 15 to 56 m. The mapping of surfaces of particular horizons, terrain, thickness of aeration zone was developed using a "Surfer" demo-version. Interpolation was made using the Kriege method. Development of models of surfaces of the top of and thickness of horizons and took the erosional washout into consideration. The analysis of cartographic material shows that loess and paleosol horizons have different consistencies. The following processes were modeled: the change in the condition in relation to moisture of the subsident soil massif within the zone of low-intensive aeration, the value of additional pressure equals 0.3 MPa; the change in the condition in relation to moisture of the subsident soil massif within the zone of averagely intensive aeration, the value of additional pressure equals 0.3 MPa (Fig. 5 b). The results of the prognosis indicate the importance of predicting the subsidence degradation as a factor of geodynamic risk, maximum values reach 0.24 m. Comparing this value to the value of acceptable settling of constructions may suggest the practicability of introducing the method of predicting subsidence to the practice of engineering-geological studies and planning. 

Author Biographies

T. P. Mokritskaya, Oles Honchar Dnipro National University
Head Department of Geology and Hydrogeology, prof., Dr.  Geol. Sciences, prof.Oles Honchar Dnipro National University
K. O. Samoylych, graduate student Oles Honchar Dnipro National University
Oles Honchar Dnipro National University


Bles T. J. & M. Th. van Staveren Deltares, P. P. T. Litjens & P. M. C. B. M. Cools. 2009. Geo Risk Scan – Getting grips on geotechnical risks. Geotechnical Risk and Safety Proceedings of the 2nd International Symposium on Geotechnical Safety and Risk (IS-Gifu 2009) Gifu, Japan. doi: 10.1201/9780203867310.ch44
Bobrov O.B., Sivoronov A.O., Malyuk B.I., Lysenko O.M. 2002. Tektonychna budova zelenoka-myanykh struktur Ukrayinskoho shchyta. [Tec-tonic structure of green stone structures of the Ukrainian shield]. Zbirn. Nauk. Prats, UkrDHRI, №1-2, UkrDHRI. 46-67 (in Ukrainian).
China Earthquake Administration. 2008. The M8.0 Wenchuan earthquake seismic intensity map. (In Chinese) Available at:
Crimmins T.M., Crimmins M.A., Gerst K.L., Rosemartin A.H., Weltzin J.F. 2017 USA National Phe-nology Network’s volunteer-contributed obser-vations yield predictive models of phenological transitions. PLoS ONE 12(8): e0182919.
Dong T., Harris N. B., Ayranci K., Yang S. 2017. The impact of rock composition on geomechanical properties of a shale formation: Middle and Up-per Devonian Horn River Group shale, North-east British Columbia, Canada. AAPG Bulletin, v. 101, no. 2. 177–204. doi:10.1306/07251615199
Kučeravcová A., Dzurdženík J. 2016. Spatial planning focusing on risk management in Slovakia. Spa-tial Planning and Resilience Following Disasters, Policy Press. DOI: 9781447323587.003.0008
Mokritskaya T. Р. 2013. Formyrovanye y evolyutsyya heolohycheskoy sredi Prydneprovskoho promishlennoho rehyona. [Formation and evo-lution of geological environment Pridneprovsk industrial region]. Dnipropetrovsk, Accent PP (in Russian).
Nourbakhsh A., LiA., LiuX., ShahS. 2017. "Breaking" Disasters: Predicting and Characterizing the Global News Value of Natural and Man-made Disasters/DATA SCIENCE, JOURNALISM, Halifax, Canada.
Nuss P., Blengini G. A. 2018. Towards better monitoring of technology critical elements in Europe: Cou-pling of natural and anthropogenic cycles. Sci-ence of the Total Environment 613–614. 569–578.DOI: .2017. 09.117
Osipov V. I., Larionov V. I., Burova V. N., Frolova N. I., Sushche S. P. 2017. Methodology of natural risk assessment in Russia: Nat Hazards 88: S17–S41. DOI: 10.1007/s11069-017-2780-z
Parkash S. 2014. Geohazards Risk Management in India. 8th Asian Rock Mechanics Symposium ARMS8, Sapporo, Japan
Pospíšil L., Švábenský O., Roštínský P., Nováková E., Weigel, J. 2017. Geodynamic risk zone at northern part of the Boskovice Furrow. ActaGeodynamica et Geomaterialia, 14, No. 1 (185), 113–129. DOI: 10.13168/AGG.2016.0033
Robinne F.-N., Bladon K. D., Miller C., Parisien M.-A., Mathieu J., Flannigan M.D. 2018. A spatial evaluation of global wildfire-water risks to hu-man and natural systems. Science of the Total Environment 610–611. 1193–1206. DOI: 0.1016/j.scitotenv.2017.08.112
Samoilych K. O., Mokritskaya T. P. 2016. Change in the parameters the microstructure of loess soil dur-ing filtration. Vysnik Dnіpropetrovskogo Uni-versity. Serіya: Geologіya. Geografіya. 24 (2), 106–113. Doi: 10.15421/111638
Schmidt S., Meusburger K., de Figueiredo T., Alewell Ch. 2017. Soil loss by wind (SoLoWind): a new GIS-based model to identify risk areas. DBG Jahrestagung der Deutschen Bodenkundlichen Gesellschaft, At Göttingen.
Skrzypczak I., Kogut J., Kokoszka W., Zientek D. 2017. Monitoring of landslide areas with the use of contemporary methods of measuring and map-ping. /Сivil and environmental engineering re-ports. CEER 2017; 24 (1): 069-082. DOI: 10.1515/ceer-2017-0005
Tien Bui D., Ngoc D. ‎A., ‎ Bui H.-B. 2017. ‎Science (eds.), Advances and Applications in Geospatial Technology and Earth Resources. DOI: 1
Zhantayeva Z., Kurmanovb B., Bibosynovb A., Fremdb A., Ivanchukova A. 2014. Persistent Scatterers Interferometry technique for urban subsidence monitoring in Kazakhstan Republic. CENTER-IS. Procedia Technology 16. 583 – 587. doi: 10.1016/j.protcy.2014.10.006
How to Cite
Mokritskaya, T., & Samoylych, K. (2017). Attempt to Create a Cartographic Forecast Model of Subsidence Degradation for the Right Bank Area of the City Dnipro. Journal of Geology, Geography and Geoecology, 25(2), 117-122.